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Red105
126150.0
100228.2
332928.9
Blue71
424014.3
473019.4
808030.9
95%Model gave it5%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions9946015010571

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+26Teleop
+28Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
6Leave6
5Coral scored#1
24Coral points6
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +8
13Coral scored#11
47Coral points41
2Processor algae#1
1Net algae#2
12Processor points6
4Net points8
16Algae points14
63Total teleop55
Reef
5L4#4
6L3#4
4L2#3
3L1 · trough#1
21Game pieces#15
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
6Foul points0
105Total score71

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
50.01.1
38.439.5
Auto13.7
Teleop34.7
End1.6
red by 19.1
30.91.5
19.120.6
Auto6.5
Teleop22.8
End1.6
Second
28.91.1
20.821.9
Auto4.2
Teleop22.8
End1.9
red by 9.5
4730
#11
19.41.5
18.920.4
Auto4.3
Teleop13.2
End2.0
Third
28.21.1
23.024.2
Auto7.3
Teleop19.4
End1.5
red by 13.9
4240
#10
14.31.5
10.512.0
Auto4.0
Teleop9.2
End1.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
65%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed5%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed14%Barge oddsMissed