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Red101
886641.5
141419.0
926047.5
Blue146
297476.8
446819.2
510937.8
20%Model gave it80%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions133152100120140160180200101146

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+24
Teleop+49
Endgame+51
Fouls+45
AutonomousBlue +24
6Leave9
2Coral scored#6
10Coral points31
16Total auto40
TeleoperatedBlue +25
14Coral scored#21
49Coral points76
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#5
12Processor points6
16Net points20
28Algae points26
77Total teleop102
Reef
4L4#12
6L3#6
4L2#6
2L1 · trough#3
22Game pieces#33
BargeBlue +2
2Cage & park4
2Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +45
6Foul points0
101Total score146

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9260
#16
47.51.7
48.947.2
Auto8.8
Teleop37.7
End1.1
blue by 29.2
2974
#10
76.81.1
78.179.2
Auto18.6
Teleop55.4
End2.8
Second
8866
#23
41.51.7
40.638.9
Auto8.6
Teleop30.5
End2.4
red by 3.7
5109
#14
37.81.1
31.532.7
Auto5.3
Teleop33.0
End-0.5
Third
1414
#43
19.01.7
24.723.0
Auto2.3
Teleop15.9
End0.9
blue by 0.2
4468
#29
19.21.1
16.417.5
Auto5.5
Teleop11.3
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
91%Auto oddsEarned74%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
12%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
34%Barge oddsMissed18%Barge oddsMissed