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Red159
331831.4
177191.3
926047.5
Blue87
670528.8
241524.2
745149.1
100%Model gave it0%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions190805010015025015987

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+62Teleop
+72Endgame
+72Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
3Leave3
7Coral scored#4
37Coral points20
40Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +45
21Coral scored#13
77Coral points46
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
105Total teleop60
Reef
12L4#7
8L3#3
3L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
34Game pieces#20
BargeRed +10
14Cage & park4
14Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +72
0Foul points0
159Total score87

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
91.30.4
87.887.4
Auto27.4
Teleop54.3
End9.6
red by 42.3
49.10.0
41.241.2
Auto12.4
Teleop32.1
End4.6
Second
9260
#16
47.50.4
47.246.8
Auto8.8
Teleop37.7
End1.1
red by 18.7
6705
#31
28.80.0
21.221.2
Auto6.5
Teleop20.0
End2.3
Third
3318
#19
31.40.4
29.729.3
Auto6.6
Teleop21.2
End3.6
red by 7.1
2415
#39
24.20.0
24.824.8
Auto2.7
Teleop20.7
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned84%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
69%Coral oddsEarned9%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsEarned31%Barge oddsMissed