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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions92820501502002503003504479

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
Teleop+35
Endgame+35
Fouls+35
AutonomousBlue +3
3Leave6
1Coral scored#1
6Coral points6
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedBlue +32
6Coral scored#13
21Coral points45
0Processor algae#2
3Net algae#2
0Processor points12
12Net points8
12Algae points20
33Total teleop65
Reef
2L4#4
2L3#5
2L2#3
1L1 · trough#2
10Game pieces#18
Bargelevel
2Cage & park2
2Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +35
0Foul points0
44Total score79

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1002
#18
42.12.4
28.225.9
Auto7.6
Teleop32.2
End2.3
red by 2.5
9477
#12
39.60.4
24.124.5
Auto6.5
Teleop31.8
End1.3
Second
8100
#37
27.12.4
24.922.5
Auto4.6
Teleop20.8
End1.6
blue by 3.7
3344
#35
30.80.4
24.725.1
Auto4.7
Teleop22.7
End3.3
Third
2415
#39
24.22.4
26.724.3
Auto2.7
Teleop20.7
End0.8
blue by 5.4
5608
#30
29.60.4
23.624.1
Auto4.0
Teleop23.5
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
62%Auto oddsMissed34%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
9%Barge oddsMissed10%Barge oddsMissed