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Red148
602345.2
682928.9
529333.9
Blue164
418832.3
694443.5
886641.5
45%Model gave it55%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions119128050100150200250148164

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+26
Endgame+16
Fouls+16
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave0
5Coral scored#5
23Coral points23
26Total auto23
TeleoperatedBlue +29
17Coral scored#28
62Coral points99
3Processor algae#3
6Net algae#4
18Processor points18
24Net points16
42Algae points34
104Total teleop133
Reef
6L4#9
9L3#12
3L2#5
4L1 · trough#7
31Game pieces#40
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +16
2Foul points2
148Total score164

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6023
#32
45.21.9
44.746.6
Auto6.3
Teleop38.2
End0.7
red by 1.7
6944
#15
43.52.7
38.941.6
Auto6.5
Teleop35.6
End1.4
Second
5293
#17
33.91.9
33.135.0
Auto8.9
Teleop22.8
End2.2
blue by 7.6
8866
#23
41.52.7
38.641.3
Auto8.6
Teleop30.5
End2.4
Third
6829
#27
28.91.9
25.026.9
Auto4.9
Teleop20.2
End3.7
blue by 3.5
4188
#22
32.32.7
30.433.1
Auto4.9
Teleop26.1
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
80%Auto oddsEarned78%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
41%Coral oddsEarned13%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsEarned21%Barge oddsMissed