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Red29
97707.2
44689.3
884913.1
Blue39
332913.3
87615.4
381514.6
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions47300204060801002939

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
Teleop+10
Endgame+10
Fouls+10
Autonomouslevel
3Leave3
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
3Total auto3
TeleoperatedBlue +10
3Coral scored#3
10Coral points12
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#2
0Processor points0
0Net points8
0Algae points8
10Total teleop20
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#0
3Game pieces#5
Bargelevel
4Cage & park4
4Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +10
12Foul points12
29Total score39

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8849
#11
13.12.5
17.014.5
Auto2.2
Teleop10.1
End0.8
blue by 1.5
3815
#15
14.60.0
1.81.8
Auto2.2
Teleop10.9
End1.5
Second
4468
#23
9.32.5
11.99.3
Auto2.6
Teleop4.4
End2.3
blue by 4.0
3329
#24
13.30.0
15.315.3
Auto2.5
Teleop8.8
End2.0
Third
9770
#30
7.22.5
10.98.3
Auto1.4
Teleop4.6
End1.3
red by 1.9
8761
#20
5.40.0
10.110.1
Auto0.4
Teleop2.8
End2.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
25%Auto oddsMissed12%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed