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Red14
560823.6
44596.6
Blue77
402612.2
381514.6
164831.5
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions393201020506070801477

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+33
Endgame+39
Fouls+63
AutonomousBlue +6
0Leave0
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
0Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +27
2Coral scored#8
8Coral points27
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#2
6Processor points6
0Net points8
6Algae points14
14Total teleop41
Reef
1L4#3
0L3#3
1L2#2
0L1 · trough#1
3Game pieces#12
BargeBlue +6
0Cage & park6
0Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +63
0Foul points24
14Total score77

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.61.5
19.117.6
Auto4.4
Teleop18.9
End0.3
blue by 7.8
31.52.4
15.918.4
Auto6.5
Teleop22.8
End2.1
Second
4459
#22
6.62.4
6.33.9
Auto0.8
Teleop5.6
End0.2
blue by 8.0
3815
#15
14.61.4
2.13.5
Auto2.2
Teleop10.9
End1.5
Third
4.02.4
10.47.9
Auto-0.3
Teleop3.0
End1.3
blue by 8.2
4026
#12
12.22.4
13.215.7
Auto1.8
Teleop8.8
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
21%Auto oddsMissed9%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
13%Barge oddsMissed22%Barge oddsMissed