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Red23
694414.9
68874.7
590012.8
Blue11
76768.8
97707.2
69057.9
72%Model gave it28%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions36210103040506070802311

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
+10Teleop
+8Endgame
+12Fouls
AutonomousRed +3
0Leave3
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
6Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +7
2Coral scored#0
7Coral points0
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
7Total teleop0
Reef
1L4#0
1L3#0
0L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
3Game pieces#0
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +12
6Foul points2
23Total score11

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6944
#21
14.91.4
9.68.3
Auto1.4
Teleop11.7
End1.8
red by 6.1
7676
#31
8.81.2
6.25.1
Auto3.3
Teleop2.9
End2.6
Second
12.81.4
14.413.0
Auto4.7
Teleop5.9
End2.2
red by 4.9
6905
#17
7.91.2
7.05.8
Auto2.2
Teleop3.8
End1.8
Third
6887
#29
4.71.4
5.34.0
Auto3.0
Teleop0.4
End1.3
blue by 2.6
9770
#30
7.21.2
6.45.2
Auto1.4
Teleop4.6
End1.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
16%Auto oddsMissed17%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
24%Barge oddsMissed15%Barge oddsMissed