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Red37
164831.5
44689.3
Blue11
76768.8
44596.6
590012.8
74%Model gave it26%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions372301030506070803711

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+24Teleop
+26Endgame
+26Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
0Leave3
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
0Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +27
6Coral scored#1
23Coral points4
0Processor algae#0
2Net algae#0
0Processor points0
8Net points0
8Algae points0
31Total teleop4
Reef
2L4#1
2L3#0
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#1
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +26
0Foul points0
37Total score11

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.50.5
18.418.9
Auto6.5
Teleop22.8
End2.1
red by 18.6
12.81.2
13.011.8
Auto4.7
Teleop5.9
End2.2
Second
4468
#23
9.30.5
5.96.4
Auto2.6
Teleop4.4
End2.3
red by 0.5
7676
#31
8.81.2
5.13.8
Auto3.3
Teleop2.9
End2.6
Third
4.00.5
7.98.5
Auto-0.3
Teleop3.0
End1.3
blue by 2.6
4459
#22
6.61.2
3.92.7
Auto0.8
Teleop5.6
End0.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
14%Auto oddsMissed12%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed9%Barge oddsMissed