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Red20
44689.3
76768.8
75149.3
Blue21
590012.8
69057.9
670517.6
33%Model gave it67%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2332010405060702021

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+6
Teleop+5
Endgame+3
Fouls+1
AutonomousBlue +6
3Leave3
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points6
3Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +1
3Coral scored#2
9Coral points8
0Processor algae#0
0Net algae#0
0Processor points0
0Net points0
0Algae points0
9Total teleop8
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
0L1 · trough#0
3Game pieces#3
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +1
2Foul points0
20Total score21

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4468
#23
9.30.3
6.46.2
Auto2.6
Teleop4.4
End2.3
blue by 8.3
6705
#10
17.60.8
12.611.8
Auto3.0
Teleop12.8
End1.9
Second
7514
#28
9.30.3
10.19.8
Auto1.3
Teleop6.2
End1.8
blue by 3.6
12.80.8
11.811.0
Auto4.7
Teleop5.9
End2.2
Third
7676
#31
8.80.3
3.83.6
Auto3.3
Teleop2.9
End2.6
red by 0.9
6905
#17
7.90.8
4.03.2
Auto2.2
Teleop3.8
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
8%Auto oddsMissed15%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
11%Barge oddsMissed11%Barge oddsMissed