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Red39
168333.2
948013.0
17468.9
Blue51
886512.5
38153.7
183335.0
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions595401001502002503003504003951

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+18
Endgame+6
Fouls+12
AutonomousRed +3
3Leave6
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
9Total auto6
TeleoperatedBlue +21
2Coral scored#7
8Coral points25
1Processor algae#1
0Net algae#1
6Processor points6
0Net points4
6Algae points10
14Total teleop35
Reef
1L4#3
1L3#1
1L2#2
0L1 · trough#1
4Game pieces#9
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +12
0Foul points6
39Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
33.21.7
30.228.4
Auto6.7
Teleop20.6
End5.8
blue by 1.9
35.00.5
28.928.3
Auto6.4
Teleop24.5
End4.1
Second
9480
#21
13.01.7
11.09.3
Auto2.3
Teleop8.4
End2.3
red by 0.5
8865
#11
12.50.5
14.113.5
Auto2.2
Teleop9.9
End0.4
Third
1746
#19
8.91.7
13.411.7
Auto3.3
Teleop3.4
End2.2
red by 5.2
3815
#27
3.70.5
6.86.3
Auto1.0
Teleop0.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
26%Auto oddsMissed34%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
37%Barge oddsEarned57%Barge oddsMissed