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Red35
873616.2
83212.3
30914.6
Blue22
710411.4
58281.8
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4417060801003522

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+7Teleop
+9Endgame
+13Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +1
3Coral scored#3
12Coral points11
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
0Processor points0
4Net points4
4Algae points4
16Total teleop15
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#0
5Game pieces#4
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +13
6Foul points2
35Total score22

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
8736
#16
16.21.4
16.314.9
Auto3.4
Teleop11.2
End1.5
red by 4.7
7104
#24
11.40.3
11.911.6
Auto1.9
Teleop8.2
End1.3
Second
832
#26
12.31.4
15.313.9
Auto3.3
Teleop6.0
End2.9
red by 9.5
2.70.3
5.14.8
Auto0.2
Teleop2.1
End0.5
Third
3091
#25
4.61.4
4.73.3
Auto3.5
Teleop0.3
End0.9
red by 2.8
5828
#29
1.80.3
-0.2-0.5
Auto0.9
Teleop0.9
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
17%Auto oddsMissed10%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
19%Barge oddsEarned13%Barge oddsMissed