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Red27
952214.6
58281.8
745121.8
Blue18
473015.3
30914.6
42409.9
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions432902060801002718

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
0Auto0
+9Teleop
+7Endgame
+9Fouls
Autonomouslevel
6Leave6
0Coral scored#0
0Coral points0
6Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +9
3Coral scored#2
11Coral points6
0Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
0Processor points0
4Net points0
4Algae points0
15Total teleop6
Reef
1L4#1
1L3#1
1L2#0
0L1 · trough#0
4Game pieces#2
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +9
2Foul points0
27Total score18

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7451
#14
21.81.2
17.416.3
Auto4.9
Teleop12.7
End4.1
red by 6.4
4730
#15
15.30.9
11.010.0
Auto2.6
Teleop11.5
End1.2
Second
9522
#13
14.61.2
19.318.0
Auto3.5
Teleop10.3
End0.8
red by 4.7
4240
#28
9.90.9
12.011.1
Auto1.7
Teleop6.4
End1.8
Third
5828
#29
1.81.2
-0.5-1.7
Auto0.9
Teleop0.9
End-0.1
blue by 2.8
3091
#25
4.60.9
3.32.4
Auto3.5
Teleop0.3
End0.9
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
35%Auto oddsMissed14%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
18%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsMissed