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Red42
88729.9
634030.8
141420.3
Blue7
886512.5
95613.9
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions70160406080100120427

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+33Teleop
+35Endgame
+35Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave3
1Coral scored#0
6Coral points0
9Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +27
5Coral scored#1
19Coral points2
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#0
6Processor points0
4Net points0
10Algae points0
29Total teleop2
Reef
2L4#0
2L3#1
1L2#0
1L1 · trough#0
8Game pieces#1
BargeRed +2
4Cage & park2
4Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +35
0Foul points0
42Total score7

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
30.81.7
26.925.2
Auto5.0
Teleop20.6
End5.3
red by 18.3
8865
#11
12.51.4
11.29.8
Auto2.2
Teleop9.9
End0.4
Second
20.31.8
23.721.9
Auto4.6
Teleop13.4
End2.2
red by 16.4
9561
#31
3.91.5
4.42.9
Auto0.4
Teleop1.5
End1.9
Third
8872
#22
9.91.8
7.75.9
Auto1.5
Teleop7.4
End1.0
red by 7.2
2.71.5
4.83.3
Auto0.2
Teleop2.1
End0.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
25%Auto oddsEarned13%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsMissed9%Barge oddsMissed