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Red79
473015.3
141420.3
183335.0
Blue41
331826.7
83212.3
42409.9
79%Model gave it21%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions73460204060801001201407941

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+7Auto
+34Teleop
+34Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +7
0Leave9
3Coral scored#0
16Coral points0
16Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +27
12Coral scored#5
43Coral points18
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#2
6Processor points0
4Net points8
10Algae points8
53Total teleop26
Reef
5L4#2
5L3#1
3L2#1
2L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#7
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
4Foul points0
79Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
35.01.1
30.531.6
Auto6.4
Teleop24.5
End4.1
red by 8.3
26.70.3
25.925.6
Auto3.9
Teleop19.7
End3.2
Second
20.31.1
20.421.6
Auto4.6
Teleop13.4
End2.2
red by 8.0
832
#26
12.30.3
9.59.2
Auto3.3
Teleop6.0
End2.9
Third
4730
#15
15.31.0
13.014.0
Auto2.6
Teleop11.5
End1.2
red by 5.4
4240
#28
9.90.3
8.88.5
Auto1.7
Teleop6.4
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
58%Auto oddsEarned29%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
31%Barge oddsMissed29%Barge oddsMissed