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Red40
560823.0
873616.2
Blue51
947712.4
168333.2
952214.6
26%Model gave it74%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions3963020801001201404051

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+13
Teleop+9
Endgame+13
Fouls+11
AutonomousBlue +13
6Leave3
0Coral scored#3
0Coral points16
6Total auto19
TeleoperatedRed +4
6Coral scored#6
20Coral points22
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
30Total teleop26
Reef
2L4#4
2L3#3
1L2#1
1L1 · trough#1
8Game pieces#10
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +11
2Foul points0
40Total score51

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
23.00.0
19.219.2
Auto5.1
Teleop17.2
End0.7
blue by 10.1
33.20.3
31.030.7
Auto6.7
Teleop20.6
End5.8
Second
8736
#16
16.20.0
15.615.6
Auto3.4
Teleop11.2
End1.5
red by 1.6
9522
#13
14.60.3
13.112.8
Auto3.5
Teleop10.3
End0.8
Third
2.70.0
2.82.8
Auto0.2
Teleop2.1
End0.5
blue by 9.7
9477
#23
12.40.4
10.810.4
Auto3.1
Teleop7.9
End1.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
32%Auto oddsMissed29%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
10%Barge oddsMissed18%Barge oddsMissed