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Red63
886512.5
75388.8
926024.2
Blue16
88729.9
95613.9
38153.7
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5070204060801006316

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+39Teleop
+41Endgame
+47Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave0
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
6Total auto0
TeleoperatedRed +33
10Coral scored#2
35Coral points8
1Processor algae#0
1Net algae#1
6Processor points0
4Net points4
10Algae points4
45Total teleop12
Reef
5L4#1
2L3#1
2L2#0
2L1 · trough#0
13Game pieces#3
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +47
6Foul points0
63Total score16

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9260
#10
24.20.8
20.221.0
Auto3.4
Teleop18.2
End2.6
red by 14.3
8872
#22
9.90.4
7.67.2
Auto1.5
Teleop7.4
End1.0
Second
8865
#11
12.50.8
10.010.8
Auto2.2
Teleop9.9
End0.4
red by 8.6
9561
#31
3.90.4
1.51.1
Auto0.4
Teleop1.5
End1.9
Third
7538
#30
8.80.9
8.49.3
Auto2.6
Teleop4.1
End2.1
red by 5.1
3815
#27
3.70.4
3.22.8
Auto1.0
Teleop0.9
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
20%Auto oddsMissed6%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
14%Barge oddsMissed13%Barge oddsMissed