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Red75
948013.0
952214.6
926024.2
Blue64
886632.9
886512.5
58281.8
52%Model gave it48%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions4948203040607080907564

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+7Teleop
+11Endgame
+11Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
6Leave3
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
9Total auto3
TeleoperatedRed +1
11Coral scored#11
38Coral points41
1Processor algae#1
4Net algae#3
6Processor points6
16Net points12
22Algae points18
60Total teleop59
Reef
4L4#4
3L3#3
3L2#3
2L1 · trough#1
17Game pieces#15
BargeRed +4
6Cage & park2
6Total endgame2
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +11
0Foul points0
75Total score64

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9260
#10
24.21.6
21.022.6
Auto3.4
Teleop18.2
End2.6
blue by 8.7
32.91.3
26.527.8
Auto2.9
Teleop29.7
End0.3
Second
9522
#13
14.61.6
12.814.3
Auto3.5
Teleop10.3
End0.8
red by 2.1
8865
#11
12.51.2
10.812.0
Auto2.2
Teleop9.9
End0.4
Third
9480
#21
13.01.7
10.011.7
Auto2.3
Teleop8.4
End2.3
red by 11.3
5828
#29
1.81.2
1.93.0
Auto0.9
Teleop0.9
End-0.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
14%Auto oddsMissed13%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
17%Barge oddsMissed6%Barge oddsMissed