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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions932204060801201401608541

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+50Teleop
+50Endgame
+44Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave9
5Coral scored#0
26Coral points0
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +33
6Coral scored#3
23Coral points10
2Processor algae#0
3Net algae#1
12Processor points0
12Net points4
24Algae points4
47Total teleop14
Reef
4L4#1
3L3#1
2L2#1
2L1 · trough#0
16Game pieces#4
Bargelevel
6Cage & park6
6Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +44
6Foul points12
85Total score41

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1261
#13
32.50.0
39.939.9
Auto7.9
Teleop22.1
End2.5
red by 17.4
4468
#21
15.10.1
13.012.8
Auto4.4
Teleop8.1
End2.7
Second
31.40.0
26.426.4
Auto5.7
Teleop23.2
End2.5
red by 24.2
9057
#26
7.20.2
5.95.6
Auto2.8
Teleop2.4
End2.1
Third
8080
#28
15.40.0
9.89.8
Auto4.4
Teleop8.1
End2.9
red by 11.8
6910
#34DQ
3.50.2
9.49.2
Auto1.2
Teleop0.6
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
43%Auto oddsEarned21%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
5%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
22%Barge oddsMissed16%Barge oddsMissed