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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions122665010015020015454

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+18Auto
+80Teleop
+100Endgame
+100Fouls
AutonomousRed +18
9Leave0
4Coral scored#2
21Coral points12
30Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +62
14Coral scored#5
50Coral points18
2Processor algae#1
6Net algae#0
12Processor points6
24Net points0
36Algae points6
86Total teleop24
Reef
7L4#2
4L3#2
4L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
26Game pieces#8
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +100
12Foul points12
154Total score54

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
72.04.1
57.962.0
Auto22.1
Teleop42.6
End7.3
red by 48.1
4509
#15
24.02.7
27.825.1
Auto5.3
Teleop16.9
End1.8
Second
31.82.4
26.929.3
Auto5.6
Teleop19.5
End6.7
red by 11.0
20.81.6
17.616.0
Auto4.4
Teleop13.6
End2.8
Third
8736
#23
23.82.4
20.522.9
Auto4.3
Teleop18.0
End1.5
red by 5.4
5074
#11
18.42.7
21.218.5
Auto5.3
Teleop11.2
End2.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
78%Auto oddsEarned46%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
11%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
52%Barge oddsEarned11%Barge oddsMissed