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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions5958010015020025010060

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
+36Teleop
+40Endgame
+40Fouls
AutonomousRed +6
9Leave6
1Coral scored#0
3Coral points0
12Total auto6
TeleoperatedRed +30
16Coral scored#12
58Coral points44
3Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
18Processor points6
8Net points4
26Algae points10
84Total teleop54
Reef
8L4#5
4L3#3
3L2#2
2L1 · trough#2
22Game pieces#14
BargeRed +4
4Cage & park0
4Total endgame0
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +40
0Foul points0
100Total score60

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
31.42.5
26.428.9
Auto5.7
Teleop23.2
End2.5
red by 2.8
4189
#16
28.60.1
23.423.3
Auto7.7
Teleop20.3
End0.6
Second
25.52.5
12.715.1
Auto2.2
Teleop22.7
End0.6
red by 1.6
8736
#23
23.80.1
22.922.8
Auto4.3
Teleop18.0
End1.5
Third
20.82.5
16.018.4
Auto4.4
Teleop13.6
End2.8
red by 13.2
9561
#25
7.70.1
6.26.1
Auto1.0
Teleop4.2
End2.4
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
26%Auto oddsEarned28%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
9%Barge oddsMissed17%Barge oddsMissed