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Red220
755878.6
438144.2
914064.4
Blue201
121875.1
97177.9
642930.6
46%Model gave it54%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions198200160170180190210220230240220201

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
+17Teleop
+17Endgame
+19Fouls
AutonomousRed +11
0Leave6
10Coral scored#7
51Coral points34
51Total auto40
TeleoperatedRed +6
26Coral scored#24
93Coral points87
3Processor algae#3
5Net algae#5
18Processor points18
20Net points20
38Algae points38
131Total teleop125
Reef
15L4#11
10L3#10
8L2#5
3L1 · trough#5
44Game pieces#39
Bargelevel
36Cage & park36
36Total endgame36
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +19
2Foul points0
220Total score201

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
7558
#10
78.62.3
78.480.7
Auto19.2
Teleop47.8
End11.7
red by 0.7
971
#17
77.91.2
75.676.8
Auto13.2
Teleop53.5
End11.2
Second
9140
#12
64.42.3
60.362.5
Auto12.2
Teleop44.0
End8.1
blue by 10.7
1218
#16
75.11.2
74.775.9
Auto20.1
Teleop43.3
End11.7
Third
4381
#62
44.22.3
42.444.7
Auto12.4
Teleop26.2
End5.6
red by 13.6
6429
#50
30.61.2
29.630.8
Auto4.3
Teleop19.0
End7.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
45%Coral oddsMissed30%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned99%Barge oddsEarned