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Red229
399068.5
571274.2
303559.5
Blue235
541169.8
19086.4
821460.7
38%Model gave it62%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions211229100150250300350229235

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+14
Teleop+16
Endgame+6
Fouls+6
AutonomousBlue +14
0Leave6
9Coral scored#10
44Coral points52
44Total auto58
TeleoperatedBlue +2
29Coral scored#35
105Coral points127
3Processor algae#1
9Net algae#7
18Processor points6
36Net points28
54Algae points34
159Total teleop161
Reef
18L4#17
9L3#17
6L2#6
5L1 · trough#5
50Game pieces#53
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +6
0Foul points0
229Total score235

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
5712
#36
74.21.6
71.773.2
Auto12.8
Teleop51.0
End10.3
blue by 12.2
190
#4
86.41.0
85.986.9
Auto25.5
Teleop51.6
End9.3
Second
3990
#29
68.51.6
66.267.8
Auto16.8
Teleop42.8
End9.0
blue by 1.3
5411
#25
69.81.0
66.467.3
Auto17.8
Teleop43.0
End9.0
Third
59.51.6
56.157.7
Auto10.0
Teleop40.9
End8.6
blue by 1.3
60.71.0
56.957.9
Auto15.2
Teleop42.9
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
82%Coral oddsEarned84%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
89%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsEarned