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Red103
438144.2
179247.4
237064.5
Blue126
657451.9
350638.8
468046.4
84%Model gave it16%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17714250100200103126

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+9
Endgame+23
Fouls+23
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave6
3Coral scored#3
14Coral points14
23Total auto20
TeleoperatedBlue +12
13Coral scored#17
46Coral points62
1Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
6Processor points6
12Net points8
18Algae points14
64Total teleop76
Reef
6L4#10
4L3#4
3L2#4
3L1 · trough#2
20Game pieces#23
BargeBlue +14
16Cage & park30
16Total endgame30
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +23
0Foul points0
103Total score126

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2370
#30
64.53.8
63.259.4
Auto11.0
Teleop45.3
End8.2
red by 12.6
6574
#23
51.90.7
54.954.2
Auto9.4
Teleop34.8
End7.7
Second
1792
#48
47.43.8
51.047.2
Auto10.0
Teleop29.5
End7.9
red by 1.1
4680
#49
46.40.7
43.342.6
Auto3.5
Teleop36.5
End6.4
Third
4381
#62
44.23.8
45.942.1
Auto12.4
Teleop26.2
End5.6
red by 5.5
3506
#54
38.80.7
38.137.4
Auto6.6
Teleop23.5
End8.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned79%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
39%Coral oddsMissed11%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
93%Barge oddsEarned86%Barge oddsEarned