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Red150
153866.8
179247.4
413524.8
Blue144
100239.0
541169.8
399068.5
13%Model gave it87%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions13618850100150200250150144

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+15
+4Teleop
+6Endgame
+6Fouls
AutonomousBlue +15
6Leave3
6Coral scored#10
30Coral points48
36Total auto51
TeleoperatedRed +19
16Coral scored#11
56Coral points39
2Processor algae#3
5Net algae#3
12Processor points18
20Net points12
32Algae points30
88Total teleop69
Reef
7L4#7
7L3#7
3L2#4
5L1 · trough#3
29Game pieces#27
BargeRed +2
26Cage & park24
26Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +6
0Foul points0
150Total score144

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
1538
#64
66.81.3
62.263.5
Auto15.5
Teleop43.7
End7.6
blue by 3.0
5411
#25
69.81.6
65.463.7
Auto17.8
Teleop43.0
End9.0
Second
1792
#48
47.41.3
46.347.6
Auto10.0
Teleop29.5
End7.9
blue by 21.1
3990
#29
68.51.6
62.761.1
Auto16.8
Teleop42.8
End9.0
Third
4135
#75
24.81.3
22.023.3
Auto5.7
Teleop16.8
End2.2
blue by 14.3
1002
#68
39.01.6
40.438.8
Auto7.7
Teleop29.7
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned98%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
58%Coral oddsMissed81%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
45%Barge oddsEarned94%Barge oddsEarned