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Red232
150177.6
97177.9
534852.5
Blue194
83468.0
657451.9
399068.5
60%Model gave it40%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions210196100150250300232194

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+26Teleop
+38Endgame
+38Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
0Leave6
10Coral scored#6
51Coral points31
51Total auto37
TeleoperatedRed +12
24Coral scored#23
85Coral points83
4Processor algae#3
9Net algae#8
24Processor points18
36Net points32
60Algae points50
145Total teleop133
Reef
12L4#12
7L3#7
10L2#7
5L1 · trough#3
47Game pieces#40
BargeRed +12
36Cage & park24
36Total endgame24
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +38
0Foul points0
232Total score194

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
971
#17
77.91.7
73.375.0
Auto13.2
Teleop53.5
End11.2
red by 9.4
3990
#29
68.50.2
66.466.2
Auto16.8
Teleop42.8
End9.0
Second
1501
#13
77.61.7
72.474.1
Auto21.6
Teleop48.3
End7.7
red by 9.5
834
#45
68.00.2
66.566.3
Auto13.0
Teleop42.5
End12.5
Third
5348
#38
52.51.7
49.851.5
Auto9.6
Teleop35.2
End7.7
red by 0.6
6574
#23
51.90.2
52.652.4
Auto9.4
Teleop34.8
End7.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
50%Coral oddsEarned33%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
96%Barge oddsEarned99%Barge oddsEarned