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Red175
914064.4
1663.3
698932.8
Blue133
871125.1
907736.9
312873.5
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions165133100150200250175133

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+22Teleop
+42Endgame
+42Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave6
4Coral scored#5
21Coral points27
30Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +25
24Coral scored#21
85Coral points74
3Processor algae#2
4Net algae#2
18Processor points12
16Net points8
34Algae points20
119Total teleop94
Reef
12L4#9
9L3#9
3L2#4
4L1 · trough#4
35Game pieces#30
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +42
0Foul points0
175Total score133

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9140
#12
64.41.6
58.760.3
Auto12.2
Teleop44.0
End8.1
blue by 9.2
3128
#18
73.50.4
68.268.5
Auto14.4
Teleop48.8
End10.3
Second
16
#51
63.31.6
59.060.5
Auto10.7
Teleop43.9
End8.7
red by 26.3
9077
#67
36.90.4
31.031.3
Auto9.9
Teleop26.7
End0.4
Third
6989
#39
32.81.6
27.629.2
Auto6.8
Teleop20.1
End5.9
red by 7.8
8711
#73
25.10.4
23.023.3
Auto3.5
Teleop18.9
End2.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
90%Auto oddsEarned67%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
10%Coral oddsMissed14%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
60%Barge oddsEarned68%Barge oddsMissed