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Red254
281361.5
755878.6
452280.7
Blue230
62067.6
399068.5
571274.2
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions243218100150200300350400254230

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+17
+12Teleop
+24Endgame
+24Fouls
AutonomousBlue +17
6Leave9
5Coral scored#8
27Coral points41
33Total auto50
TeleoperatedRed +29
31Coral scored#21
113Coral points76
6Processor algae#8
9Net algae#8
36Processor points48
36Net points32
72Algae points80
185Total teleop156
Reef
12L4#13
10L3#4
5L2#7
9L1 · trough#5
51Game pieces#45
BargeRed +12
36Cage & park24
36Total endgame24
Penalties & totalRed +24
0Foul points0
254Total score230

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.70.7
81.382.0
Auto20.5
Teleop52.0
End8.3
red by 6.6
5712
#36
74.20.5
73.774.2
Auto12.8
Teleop51.0
End10.3
Second
7558
#10
78.60.7
79.179.8
Auto19.2
Teleop47.8
End11.7
red by 10.1
3990
#29
68.50.5
68.068.5
Auto16.8
Teleop42.8
End9.0
Third
2813
#20
61.50.7
62.062.7
Auto8.1
Teleop42.7
End10.7
blue by 6.1
620
#11
67.60.5
67.267.6
Auto18.4
Teleop46.5
End2.7