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Red249
281361.5
755878.6
452280.7
Blue227
97177.9
978568.0
447683.0
53%Model gave it47%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions238234150200300350249227

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+21
+2Teleop
+22Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousBlue +21
9Leave9
6Coral scored#10
28Coral points49
37Total auto58
TeleoperatedRed +23
35Coral scored#32
126Coral points115
3Processor algae#3
8Net algae#5
18Processor points18
32Net points20
50Algae points38
176Total teleop153
Reef
20L4#15
11L3#9
5L2#12
5L1 · trough#6
52Game pieces#50
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points0
249Total score227

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
80.70.6
81.381.9
Auto20.5
Teleop52.0
End8.3
blue by 2.2
4476
#14
83.00.1
81.581.5
Auto22.3
Teleop56.9
End3.8
Second
7558
#10
78.60.6
79.279.8
Auto19.2
Teleop47.8
End11.7
red by 0.7
971
#17
77.90.1
76.476.5
Auto13.2
Teleop53.5
End11.2
Third
2813
#20
61.50.6
61.462.0
Auto8.1
Teleop42.7
End10.7
blue by 6.5
9785
#34
68.00.1
66.566.5
Auto12.8
Teleop48.1
End7.0