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Red174
634043.7
947724.2
297469.2
Blue103
692525.6
747017.1
948030.0
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1516450100200250174103

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+63Teleop
+71Endgame
+71Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
9Leave0
6Coral scored#2
28Coral points9
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +35
25Coral scored#17
89Coral points62
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#2
18Processor points18
16Net points8
34Algae points26
123Total teleop88
Reef
8L4#9
12L3#3
5L2#3
6L1 · trough#4
38Game pieces#24
BargeRed +8
14Cage & park6
14Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +71
0Foul points0
174Total score103

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.21.9
64.266.1
Auto10.6
Teleop56.0
End2.6
red by 39.2
30.01.4
23.424.7
Auto4.1
Teleop20.5
End5.4
Second
43.71.9
39.241.2
Auto8.7
Teleop27.8
End7.2
red by 18.1
6925
#21
25.61.8
25.227.0
Auto3.2
Teleop20.8
End1.6
Third
9477
#10
24.21.9
21.523.4
Auto4.4
Teleop17.9
End1.9
red by 7.1
7470
#15
17.11.8
15.116.9
Auto3.9
Teleop11.6
End1.6
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
82%Auto oddsEarned40%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
3%Coral oddsEarned4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsEarned40%Barge oddsMissed