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Red152
886642.3
297469.2
52195.5
Blue120
634043.7
905712.4
164845.7
82%Model gave it18%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1341056080120160180200152120

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+7
+48Teleop
+28Endgame
+32Fouls
AutonomousBlue +7
9Leave3
3Coral scored#5
14Coral points27
23Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +55
24Coral scored#11
85Coral points38
3Processor algae#3
4Net algae#2
18Processor points18
16Net points8
34Algae points26
119Total teleop64
Reef
10L4#8
7L3#3
7L2#3
3L1 · trough#2
34Game pieces#21
BargeBlue +20
6Cage & park26
6Total endgame26
Penalties & totalRed +32
4Foul points0
152Total score120

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
69.20.1
68.868.9
Auto10.6
Teleop56.0
End2.6
red by 23.5
45.70.2
43.543.7
Auto9.6
Teleop28.8
End7.3
Second
42.30.1
41.942.0
Auto7.7
Teleop34.9
End-0.2
blue by 1.4
43.70.1
41.541.7
Auto8.7
Teleop27.8
End7.2
Third
5219
#18
5.50.1
5.05.1
Auto3.0
Teleop1.3
End1.2
blue by 6.9
9057
#22
12.40.2
10.210.3
Auto2.7
Teleop6.6
End3.1