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Red157
285323.4
246540.4
427079.2
Blue55
289614.3
887115.2
300831.4
96%Model gave it4%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions11657010015015755

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+28Auto
+82Teleop
+102Endgame
+102Fouls
AutonomousRed +28
6Leave6
6Coral scored#1
31Coral points3
37Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +54
16Coral scored#6
56Coral points20
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#1
12Processor points6
16Net points4
28Algae points10
84Total teleop30
Reef
9L4#3
5L3#1
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#1
28Game pieces#9
BargeRed +20
36Cage & park16
36Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +102
0Foul points0
157Total score55

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
79.23.9
61.665.4
Auto16.2
Teleop54.2
End8.8
red by 47.8
31.40.0
22.422.4
Auto4.7
Teleop22.2
End4.5
Second
2465
#12
40.46.5
24.631.0
Auto9.5
Teleop21.9
End9.0
red by 25.1
8871
#33
15.20.0
16.516.4
Auto3.3
Teleop9.2
End2.8
Third
2853
#13
23.43.9
12.716.6
Auto3.8
Teleop13.5
End6.1
red by 9.1
2896
#27
14.30.0
16.316.3
Auto3.2
Teleop8.6
End2.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
61%Auto oddsEarned36%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsEarned7%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
66%Barge oddsEarned43%Barge oddsEarned