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Red148
243856.5
247725.1
388244.5
Blue109
300831.4
388121.9
246540.4
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1438850100200148109

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+45Teleop
+51Endgame
+39Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
0Leave0
7Coral scored#3
33Coral points16
33Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +28
19Coral scored#14
69Coral points49
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#4
18Processor points6
12Net points16
30Algae points22
99Total teleop71
Reef
7L4#8
10L3#4
6L2#2
3L1 · trough#3
32Game pieces#22
BargeRed +6
16Cage & park10
16Total endgame10
Penalties & totalRed +39
0Foul points12
148Total score109

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
56.50.5
56.657.0
Auto14.3
Teleop40.6
End1.6
red by 16.1
2465
#12
40.40.2
37.938.1
Auto9.5
Teleop21.9
End9.0
Second
44.50.5
44.645.0
Auto6.7
Teleop31.4
End6.4
red by 13.1
31.40.2
28.929.2
Auto4.7
Teleop22.2
End4.5
Third
2477
#31
25.10.5
25.125.6
Auto5.0
Teleop17.2
End2.9
red by 3.2
3881
#21
21.90.2
19.419.6
Auto4.2
Teleop12.2
End5.5