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Red259
945088.2
924571.6
763268.6
Blue70
913447.4
37946.8
313055.4
99%Model gave it1%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions2401215010015020030035025970

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+29Auto
+163Teleop
+195Endgame
+189Fouls
AutonomousRed +29
6Leave3
10Coral scored#5
49Coral points23
55Total auto26
TeleoperatedRed +134
31Coral scored#7
112Coral points24
4Processor algae#1
8Net algae#1
24Processor points6
32Net points4
56Algae points10
168Total teleop34
Reef
20L4#5
11L3#3
5L2#2
5L1 · trough#2
53Game pieces#14
BargeRed +32
36Cage & park4
36Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +189
0Foul points6
259Total score70

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9450
#17
88.22.6
85.287.8
Auto19.9
Teleop56.5
End11.8
red by 32.8
3130
#13
55.44.0
59.455.4
Auto11.7
Teleop34.6
End9.1
Second
71.62.6
68.070.6
Auto14.5
Teleop49.1
End8.1
red by 24.2
9134
#22
47.44.0
51.447.4
Auto9.7
Teleop33.9
End3.8
Third
68.62.6
63.666.2
Auto17.2
Teleop45.0
End6.5
red by 61.8
3794
#69
6.84.0
10.86.8
Auto1.9
Teleop4.1
End0.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned86%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
67%Coral oddsEarned21%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
94%Barge oddsEarned72%Barge oddsMissed