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Red173
80149.2
400952.0
238358.1
Blue225
319770.3
414570.0
253973.9
9%Model gave it91%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions15922150100200250173225

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+11
Teleop+46
Endgame+48
Fouls+52
AutonomousBlue +11
3Leave6
3Coral scored#5
16Coral points24
19Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +35
26Coral scored#38
92Coral points135
2Processor algae#2
6Net algae#4
12Processor points12
24Net points16
36Algae points28
128Total teleop163
Reef
10L4#18
7L3#9
5L2#9
7L1 · trough#7
37Game pieces#49
BargeBlue +2
24Cage & park26
24Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +52
2Foul points6
173Total score225

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2383
#73
58.10.5
55.355.8
Auto11.7
Teleop38.4
End8.0
blue by 15.8
2539
#19
73.90.6
70.170.7
Auto15.2
Teleop48.6
End10.1
Second
4009
#35
52.00.5
50.050.5
Auto11.2
Teleop37.4
End3.4
blue by 18.3
3197
#44
70.30.6
64.665.2
Auto15.7
Teleop46.4
End8.2
Third
801
#34
49.20.5
46.947.4
Auto12.1
Teleop33.2
End4.0
blue by 20.8
4145
#12
70.00.6
64.164.7
Auto18.1
Teleop45.4
End6.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
98%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
35%Coral oddsMissed96%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
83%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsEarned