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Red154
518159.9
763268.6
88857.7
Blue132
247041.2
598763.1
249167.3
65%Model gave it35%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions188177120140160200220240260154132

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+29Auto
+20Teleop
+22Endgame
+22Fouls
AutonomousRed +29
0Leave0
13Coral scored#7
65Coral points36
65Total auto36
TeleoperatedBlue +9
16Coral scored#18
59Coral points64
2Processor algae#2
3Net algae#4
12Processor points12
12Net points16
24Algae points28
83Total teleop92
Reef
8L4#6
10L3#8
6L2#7
5L1 · trough#4
34Game pieces#31
BargeRed +2
6Cage & park4
6Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +22
0Foul points0
154Total score132

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
68.61.4
60.058.5
Auto17.2
Teleop45.0
End6.5
red by 1.3
2491
#25
67.32.2
60.658.4
Auto16.3
Teleop44.0
End7.0
Second
5181
#18
59.91.4
57.856.4
Auto12.3
Teleop41.8
End5.8
blue by 3.2
5987
#14
63.12.2
59.857.5
Auto10.4
Teleop41.4
End11.2
Third
888
#47
57.71.4
57.856.4
Auto17.2
Teleop39.4
End1.2
red by 16.6
2470
#70
41.22.2
45.243.0
Auto9.3
Teleop28.9
End3.0
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned90%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
77%Coral oddsMissed30%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
53%Barge oddsMissed92%Barge oddsMissed