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Red216
54043.2
365665.8
598763.1
Blue206
963535.8
80149.2
397081.7
47%Model gave it53%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions181183100150200250216206

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+10Auto
0Teleop0
Endgame+10
+10Fouls
AutonomousRed +10
6Leave6
8Coral scored#6
38Coral points28
44Total auto34
TeleoperatedBlue +10
26Coral scored#27
92Coral points98
4Processor algae#4
5Net algae#6
24Processor points24
20Net points24
44Algae points48
136Total teleop146
Reef
9L4#11
12L3#10
7L2#6
6L1 · trough#6
43Game pieces#43
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +10
20Foul points0
216Total score206

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3656
#11
65.81.0
59.560.4
Auto12.0
Teleop43.3
End10.5
blue by 15.9
3970
#43
81.71.4
78.780.1
Auto17.5
Teleop54.2
End10.0
Second
5987
#14
63.11.0
57.558.5
Auto10.4
Teleop41.4
End11.2
red by 13.8
801
#34
49.21.4
47.448.8
Auto12.1
Teleop33.2
End4.0
Third
540
#50
43.21.0
44.845.7
Auto9.6
Teleop33.8
End-0.2
red by 7.4
9635
#75
35.81.4
39.641.0
Auto7.5
Teleop26.5
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
83%Auto oddsEarned94%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
64%Coral oddsEarned33%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
92%Barge oddsEarned73%Barge oddsEarned