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Red164
88857.7
270636.5
414570.0
Blue192
278357.7
78158.8
598524.3
80%Model gave it20%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions17513750100150200250164192

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+3Auto
Teleop+24
Endgame+34
Fouls+28
AutonomousRed +3
9Leave9
6Coral scored#6
31Coral points28
40Total auto37
TeleoperatedBlue +27
18Coral scored#25
66Coral points89
2Processor algae#4
6Net algae#4
12Processor points24
24Net points16
36Algae points40
102Total teleop129
Reef
11L4#14
7L3#5
3L2#6
3L1 · trough#6
32Game pieces#39
BargeBlue +10
16Cage & park26
16Total endgame26
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +28
6Foul points0
164Total score192

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4145
#12
70.00.5
64.463.9
Auto18.1
Teleop45.4
End6.5
red by 11.2
781
#59
58.83.7
53.357.0
Auto13.2
Teleop43.1
End2.5
Second
888
#47
57.70.5
56.455.9
Auto17.2
Teleop39.4
End1.2
Level
2783
#37
57.73.7
54.057.7
Auto16.7
Teleop31.4
End9.6
Third
2706
#62
36.50.5
33.733.2
Auto6.0
Teleop28.8
End1.7
red by 12.2
5985
#48
24.33.7
18.221.9
Auto8.7
Teleop10.9
End4.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsEarned88%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
69%Coral oddsEarned6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
29%Barge oddsEarned75%Barge oddsEarned