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Red197
150661.8
501341.9
319770.3
Blue145
8646.4
581757.5
1022442.7
70%Model gave it30%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions18115250100200250197145

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+35Auto
+36Teleop
+46Endgame
+52Fouls
AutonomousRed +35
6Leave6
10Coral scored#3
52Coral points17
58Total auto23
TeleoperatedRed +1
24Coral scored#17
85Coral points60
2Processor algae#2
5Net algae#11
12Processor points12
20Net points44
32Algae points56
117Total teleop116
Reef
10L4#5
12L3#7
9L2#4
3L1 · trough#4
41Game pieces#33
BargeRed +10
16Cage & park6
16Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +52
6Foul points0
197Total score145

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3197
#44
70.31.8
66.167.8
Auto15.7
Teleop46.4
End8.2
red by 12.8
5817
#64
57.50.4
52.653.0
Auto8.4
Teleop47.5
End1.7
Second
1506
#24
61.81.8
59.461.2
Auto15.6
Teleop38.1
End8.1
red by 15.4
86
#49
46.40.4
44.244.6
Auto9.7
Teleop26.5
End10.2
Third
5013
#51
41.91.8
38.940.7
Auto8.4
Teleop31.5
End2.1
blue by 0.8
42.70.4
42.142.5
Auto7.4
Teleop31.0
End4.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned95%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
41%Coral oddsMissed42%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned76%Barge oddsMissed