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Red190
78158.8
252275.2
1047958.6
Blue205
1022442.7
248548.2
276783.0
62%Model gave it38%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions200189120140160180220240260280190205

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+11Auto
Teleop+13
Endgame+3
Fouls+15
AutonomousRed +11
3Leave3
8Coral scored#5
38Coral points27
41Total auto30
TeleoperatedBlue +24
29Coral scored#28
105Coral points99
1Processor algae#4
3Net algae#6
6Processor points24
12Net points24
18Algae points48
123Total teleop147
Reef
11L4#9
17L3#8
5L2#9
4L1 · trough#7
41Game pieces#43
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +15
0Foul points12
190Total score205

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2522
#38
75.20.2
68.869.0
Auto21.3
Teleop45.2
End8.8
blue by 7.8
2767
#33
83.01.2
84.085.2
Auto20.3
Teleop52.5
End10.2
Second
781
#59
58.80.2
57.057.2
Auto13.2
Teleop43.1
End2.5
red by 10.6
2485
#52
48.21.2
43.444.6
Auto11.9
Teleop31.2
End5.1
Third
58.60.2
55.455.6
Auto12.2
Teleop38.6
End7.9
red by 15.9
42.71.2
42.543.7
Auto7.4
Teleop31.0
End4.3
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
94%Auto oddsMissed99%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
82%Coral oddsMissed50%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
72%Barge oddsEarned58%Barge oddsEarned