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Red173
954520.1
414570.0
278357.7
Blue142
313055.4
963535.8
501341.9
35%Model gave it65%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions147155100120140180200173142

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
+33Teleop
+43Endgame
+31Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
6Leave0
7Coral scored#7
35Coral points33
41Total auto33
TeleoperatedRed +25
22Coral scored#16
80Coral points59
1Processor algae#1
5Net algae#4
6Processor points6
20Net points16
26Algae points22
106Total teleop81
Reef
12L4#6
7L3#8
4L2#7
6L1 · trough#2
35Game pieces#28
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +31
0Foul points12
173Total score142

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
4145
#12
70.02.1
61.363.4
Auto18.1
Teleop45.4
End6.5
red by 14.6
3130
#13
55.41.4
57.456.0
Auto11.7
Teleop34.6
End9.1
Second
2783
#37
57.72.1
58.260.3
Auto16.7
Teleop31.4
End9.6
red by 15.8
5013
#51
41.91.4
41.139.7
Auto8.4
Teleop31.5
End2.1
Third
9545
#72
20.12.1
10.212.3
Auto0.9
Teleop16.5
End2.7
blue by 15.7
9635
#75
35.81.4
41.440.0
Auto7.5
Teleop26.5
End1.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
72%Auto oddsMissed84%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
30%Coral oddsEarned22%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
76%Barge oddsEarned62%Barge oddsEarned