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Red225
80149.2
97374.5
313055.4
Blue153
270636.5
78158.8
208026.8
97%Model gave it3%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions20111750100150250300225153

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+21Auto
+54Teleop
+76Endgame
+72Fouls
AutonomousRed +21
3Leave0
7Coral scored#3
34Coral points16
37Total auto16
TeleoperatedRed +33
33Coral scored#20
118Coral points71
3Processor algae#4
6Net algae#8
18Processor points24
24Net points32
42Algae points56
160Total teleop127
Reef
15L4#8
10L3#7
10L2#4
5L1 · trough#4
49Game pieces#35
BargeRed +22
26Cage & park4
26Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +72
2Foul points6
225Total score153

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
973
#26
74.52.5
68.470.9
Auto16.7
Teleop46.1
End11.8
red by 15.7
781
#59
58.81.6
57.358.9
Auto13.2
Teleop43.1
End2.5
Second
3130
#13
55.42.5
56.058.4
Auto11.7
Teleop34.6
End9.1
red by 18.9
2706
#62
36.51.6
34.736.3
Auto6.0
Teleop28.8
End1.7
Third
801
#34
49.22.5
50.352.8
Auto12.1
Teleop33.2
End4.0
red by 22.4
2080
#74
26.81.6
19.521.1
Auto3.6
Teleop20.0
End3.2
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
97%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
61%Coral oddsEarned8%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
91%Barge oddsEarned19%Barge oddsMissed