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Red243
249167.3
253973.9
664747.7
Blue159
347343.9
103840.5
581757.5
91%Model gave it9%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions20113850100150250243159

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+42Teleop
+62Endgame
+84Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
9Leave9
7Coral scored#4
35Coral points21
44Total auto30
TeleoperatedRed +28
31Coral scored#18
113Coral points65
2Processor algae#4
5Net algae#7
12Processor points24
20Net points28
32Algae points52
145Total teleop117
Reef
14L4#7
7L3#8
10L2#5
7L1 · trough#2
45Game pieces#33
BargeRed +20
26Cage & park6
26Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +84
28Foul points6
243Total score159

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2539
#19
73.92.2
69.271.4
Auto15.2
Teleop48.6
End10.1
red by 16.4
5817
#64
57.51.2
54.055.2
Auto8.4
Teleop47.5
End1.7
Second
2491
#25
67.32.2
58.360.4
Auto16.3
Teleop44.0
End7.0
red by 23.4
3473
#28
43.91.2
40.041.2
Auto10.4
Teleop29.5
End4.0
Third
6647
#36
47.72.2
44.046.1
Auto7.7
Teleop37.1
End2.8
red by 7.2
1038
#42
40.51.2
29.730.9
Auto8.0
Teleop29.4
End3.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
92%Auto oddsEarned87%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
47%Coral oddsEarned15%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
84%Barge oddsEarned22%Barge oddsMissed