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Red214
296052.7
388252.5
252275.2
Blue180
400952.0
304570.7
913447.4
58%Model gave it42%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions189183120140160200220240214180

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+8Auto
+2Teleop
+34Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousRed +8
3Leave6
7Coral scored#5
34Coral points23
37Total auto29
TeleoperatedBlue +6
29Coral scored#27
103Coral points97
3Processor algae#5
5Net algae#5
18Processor points30
20Net points20
38Algae points50
141Total teleop147
Reef
16L4#12
8L3#8
8L2#6
4L1 · trough#6
44Game pieces#42
BargeRed +32
36Cage & park4
36Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
0Foul points0
214Total score180

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2522
#38
75.22.1
70.372.3
Auto21.3
Teleop45.2
End8.8
red by 4.5
3045
#45
70.70.1
69.669.5
Auto16.0
Teleop47.2
End7.6
Second
2960
#20
52.72.1
53.655.7
Auto10.5
Teleop34.9
End7.3
red by 0.7
4009
#35
52.00.1
51.050.9
Auto11.2
Teleop37.4
End3.4
Third
3882
#15
52.52.1
47.950.0
Auto6.9
Teleop36.1
End9.5
red by 5.1
9134
#22
47.40.1
49.549.4
Auto9.7
Teleop33.9
End3.8
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
96%Auto oddsEarned97%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
49%Coral oddsEarned34%Coral oddsEarned
Barge
95%Barge oddsEarned82%Barge oddsMissed