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Red167
632471.8
598763.1
742140.6
Blue179
170026.8
3377.7
190260.7
48%Model gave it52%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions185186150160170180190200210220230167179

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, centred to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+6Auto
Teleop+16
Endgame+6
Fouls+12
AutonomousRed +6
3Leave6
6Coral scored#4
30Coral points21
33Total auto27
TeleoperatedBlue +22
20Coral scored#24
72Coral points86
1Processor algae#3
7Net algae#6
6Processor points18
28Net points24
34Algae points42
106Total teleop128
Reef
12L4#11
5L3#7
5L2#5
4L1 · trough#5
34Game pieces#37
BargeRed +10
26Cage & park16
26Total endgame16
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalBlue +12
2Foul points8
167Total score179

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
6324
#31
71.80.3
71.270.9
Auto15.5
Teleop48.4
End7.9
blue by 5.9
33
#23
77.70.1
81.081.1
Auto14.0
Teleop55.5
End8.2
Second
5987
#14
63.10.3
59.158.9
Auto10.4
Teleop41.4
End11.2
red by 2.4
1902
#30
60.70.1
58.558.6
Auto9.5
Teleop45.0
End6.2
Third
7421
#71
40.60.3
39.038.7
Auto9.6
Teleop27.7
End3.2
red by 13.7
1700
#60
26.80.1
30.030.1
Auto5.4
Teleop16.4
End5.1
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
93%Auto oddsEarned96%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
35%Coral oddsMissed35%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
88%Barge oddsEarned91%Barge oddsEarned