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Red265
945088.2
662174.0
253973.9
Blue209
19571.5
3377.7
924571.6
73%Model gave it27%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions249227150200300265209

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+9Auto
+34Teleop
+56Endgame
+56Fouls
AutonomousRed +9
6Leave9
10Coral scored#8
52Coral points40
58Total auto49
TeleoperatedRed +25
35Coral scored#32
127Coral points116
4Processor algae#3
5Net algae#3
24Processor points18
20Net points12
44Algae points30
171Total teleop146
Reef
20L4#18
10L3#12
7L2#5
8L1 · trough#5
54Game pieces#46
BargeRed +22
36Cage & park14
36Total endgame14
Penalties & totalRed +56
0Foul points0
265Total score209

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
9450
#17
88.20.7
87.888.5
Auto19.9
Teleop56.5
End11.8
red by 10.5
33
#23
77.70.2
76.776.5
Auto14.0
Teleop55.5
End8.2
Second
74.00.7
73.774.4
Auto15.4
Teleop47.9
End10.7
red by 2.4
71.60.2
70.670.4
Auto14.5
Teleop49.1
End8.1
Third
2539
#19
73.90.7
73.674.3
Auto15.2
Teleop48.6
End10.1
red by 2.4
195
#39
71.50.2
71.571.3
Auto16.4
Teleop47.0
End8.1