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Red211
207570.4
97374.5
252275.2
Blue229
150661.8
3377.7
924571.6
68%Model gave it32%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions235218150200250300211229

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+10
Teleop+14
Endgame+14
Fouls+18
AutonomousBlue +10
9Leave3
7Coral scored#10
35Coral points51
44Total auto54
TeleoperatedBlue +4
25Coral scored#26
89Coral points95
4Processor algae#3
6Net algae#7
24Processor points18
24Net points28
48Algae points46
137Total teleop141
Reef
13L4#12
6L3#13
8L2#5
5L1 · trough#6
42Game pieces#46
Bargelevel
26Cage & park26
26Total endgame26
Penalties & totalBlue +18
4Foul points8
211Total score229

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
2522
#38
75.20.3
75.675.2
Auto21.3
Teleop45.2
End8.8
blue by 2.4
33
#23
77.70.3
76.576.8
Auto14.0
Teleop55.5
End8.2
Second
973
#26
74.50.3
74.874.5
Auto16.7
Teleop46.1
End11.8
red by 2.9
71.60.3
70.470.7
Auto14.5
Teleop49.1
End8.1
Third
2075
#10
70.40.3
70.770.4
Auto13.0
Teleop47.5
End9.9
red by 8.5
1506
#24
61.80.3
60.961.2
Auto15.6
Teleop38.1
End8.1