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Red103
321649.1
11536.8
68727.7
Blue69
156929.4
931418.0
1044815.7
85%Model gave it15%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions1006105015010369

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
Auto+3
+38Teleop
+34Endgame
+34Fouls
AutonomousBlue +3
9Leave9
0Coral scored#1
0Coral points3
9Total auto12
TeleoperatedRed +41
17Coral scored#10
62Coral points37
3Processor algae#1
3Net algae#2
18Processor points6
12Net points8
30Algae points14
92Total teleop51
Reef
4L4#4
5L3#3
5L2#2
3L1 · trough#2
23Game pieces#14
BargeBlue +4
2Cage & park6
2Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +34
0Foul points0
103Total score69

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
3216
#28
49.10.5
37.137.6
Auto9.1
Teleop37.8
End2.2
red by 19.7
1569
#20
29.40.3
20.420.7
Auto4.8
Teleop19.7
End4.9
Second
115
#19
36.80.5
21.522.1
Auto4.4
Teleop28.7
End3.7
red by 18.8
9314
#45
18.00.5
14.815.3
Auto4.2
Teleop11.4
End2.4
Third
687
#29
27.70.6
25.325.9
Auto6.2
Teleop17.7
End3.8
red by 12.0
15.70.5
20.520.9
Auto5.7
Teleop8.5
End1.5
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
53%Auto oddsMissed24%Auto oddsEarned
Coral
7%Coral oddsMissed6%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
42%Barge oddsMissed39%Barge oddsMissed