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Red129
789527.1
68727.7
69659.8
Blue72
855116.4
972615.5
459826.6
98%Model gave it2%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions10741020608010012014016012972

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+14Auto
+53Teleop
+51Endgame
+57Fouls
AutonomousRed +14
6Leave6
3Coral scored#1
17Coral points3
23Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +39
19Coral scored#12
68Coral points43
2Processor algae#1
4Net algae#2
12Processor points6
16Net points8
28Algae points14
96Total teleop57
Reef
6L4#6
6L3#3
6L2#2
4L1 · trough#2
28Game pieces#16
BargeBlue +2
4Cage & park6
4Total endgame6
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +57
6Foul points0
129Total score72

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
696
#6
59.82.7
49.652.4
Auto13.3
Teleop43.4
End3.1
red by 33.2
4598
#22
26.62.1
10.512.6
Auto5.5
Teleop19.1
End2.0
Second
687
#29
27.72.5
22.825.3
Auto6.2
Teleop17.7
End3.8
red by 11.4
8551
#39
16.42.8
18.020.8
Auto5.0
Teleop9.7
End1.7
Third
7895
#23
27.12.3
16.719.0
Auto4.8
Teleop19.6
End2.7
red by 11.5
9726
#25
15.52.8
15.518.3
Auto1.6
Teleop12.2
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
79%Auto oddsEarned31%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
4%Coral oddsMissed4%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
35%Barge oddsMissed21%Barge oddsMissed