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Red125
114853.5
972615.5
324329.4
Blue40
924310.9
973715.8
189124.9
90%Model gave it10%
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Expected scoresforecast vs result
Expected score distributions976220408012014016012540

Skew-normal from the model's own per-alliance spread, scaled to match the published odds

Score breakdownReefscape
Margin
+17Auto
+47Teleop
+59Endgame
+85Fouls
AutonomousRed +17
6Leave0
4Coral scored#2
20Coral points9
26Total auto9
TeleoperatedRed +30
9Coral scored#5
31Coral points17
3Processor algae#1
2Net algae#1
18Processor points6
8Net points4
26Algae points10
57Total teleop27
Reef
4L4#3
2L3#2
4L2#1
3L1 · trough#1
18Game pieces#9
BargeRed +12
16Cage & park4
16Total endgame4
Ranking points
Auto
Coral
Barge
Penalties & totalRed +85
26Foul points0
125Total score40

Dotted labels are illustrative: we store each alliance's auto, teleop, endgame and foul points, not the game-piece detail behind them, so the itemised rows are a plausible spread that adds back up to the totals we do have. Field names match what the engine already parses.

Robotsace against ace · open a pair for detail
Ace
53.51.0
45.045.9
Auto9.7
Teleop36.9
End6.9
red by 28.7
1891
#27
24.91.5
22.621.1
Auto3.6
Teleop17.6
End3.6
Second
3243
#21
29.41.0
25.426.4
Auto4.4
Teleop22.6
End2.3
red by 13.5
9737
#31
15.82.5
19.416.8
Auto2.2
Teleop11.6
End2.0
Third
9726
#25
15.51.6
14.215.8
Auto1.6
Teleop12.2
End1.7
red by 4.6
9243
#49
10.92.5
20.918.3
Auto3.5
Teleop5.7
End1.7
Ranking point oddsdots past the line are the odds
Auto
55%Auto oddsEarned57%Auto oddsMissed
Coral
6%Coral oddsMissed3%Coral oddsMissed
Barge
51%Barge oddsEarned18%Barge oddsMissed